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DTSTART:20251005T030000
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DTSTAMP:20250812T044422Z
UID:508F3D19-C61E-49DD-ADFD-FD7E0DE6B0D4
DTSTART;TZID=Australia/Adelaide:20250806T130000
DTEND;TZID=Australia/Adelaide:20250806T140000
DESCRIPTION:Is it possible for a large sequence of measurements or observat
 ions\, which support a hypothesis\, to\n\ncounterintuitively decrease our 
 confidence? Can unanimous support be too good to be true? The\n\nassumptio
 n of independence is often made in good faith\; however\, rarely is consid
 ertion given to\n\nwhether a systemic failure has occurred. Taking this in
 to account can cause certainty in a hypothesis to\n\ndecrease as the evide
 nce for it becomes apparently stronger. Even with very low systemic failur
 e rates\,\n\nhigh confidence is surprisingly difficult to achieve. This ap
 parent paradox will be explained in an\n\naccessible way\, and we will dra
 w upon interesting examples.\n\nCo-sponsored by: Retired Engineers Group\n
 \nSpeaker(s): Derek\, \n\nBldg: Level 11\, Engineers Australia\, 108\, Kin
 g William Street\, Adelaide\, South Australia\, Australia\, 5000
LOCATION:Bldg: Level 11\, Engineers Australia\, 108\, King William Street\,
  Adelaide\, South Australia\, Australia\, 5000
ORGANIZER:powis@bigpond.com
SEQUENCE:28
SUMMARY:Too Good To Be True - Can Too Much Evidence Be Unreliable?
URL;VALUE=URI:https://events.vtools.ieee.org/m/494590
X-ALT-DESC:Description: &lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Is it possible for a large sequence of
  measurements or observations\, which support a hypothesis\, to&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;\n
 &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;counterintuitively decrease our confidence? Can unanimous support b
 e too good to be true? The&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;\n&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;assumption of independence is 
 often made in good faith\; however\, rarely is considertion given to&lt;/em&gt;&lt;
 /p&gt;\n&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;whether a systemic failure has occurred. Taking this into acco
 unt can cause certainty in a hypothesis to&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;\n&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;decrease as th
 e evidence for it becomes apparently stronger. Even with very low systemic
  failure rates\,&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;\n&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;high confidence is surprisingly difficul
 t to achieve. This apparent paradox will be explained in an&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;\n&lt;p&gt;&lt;
 em&gt;accessible way\, and we will draw upon interesting examples.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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