MNO Technology Investment and the Coming AI Wave
The technology investment cycle at Australia’s three MNOs has been under a cloud for several years as, for a period, none of the three was generating a return greater than their cost of capital. The outlook now is better, but for how long? And how will that affect Telstra’s , Optus’s and TPG’s investment in the next generation of technologies including 5G Advanced, 6G, satellite and IoT?
The three year financial outlook for Australia’s three Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) is the brightest it has been for about 10 years, with mobile service revenue recovering strongly in the years since Covid, helping lift cash earnings and return on invested capital (RoIC). That is a good turnaround from five years ago when none of the three had RoIC above their cost of capital. Telstra now has a positive net return, and Optus and TPG are closing in on this target. The three made substantial write-downs in their E&G businesses in the past 12 months as benefits expected at the time of E&G network investment failed to be realised. Will there be a similar outcome in mobile? The demand for further MNO capital investment is likely to rise quickly to expand 5G networks capacity and coverage, meet initial investment in 6G networks and renew cA$5-6bn in spectrum licences. Challenges to generating a return on this investment are rising as the possible benefits of AI may accrue to hyperscalers and SPs but are hard for MNOs to capture.
Date and Time
Location
Hosts
Registration
- Date: 01 May 2025
- Time: 04:30 AM UTC to 05:30 AM UTC
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- 31 North Road
- Acton, Australian Capital Territory
- Australia 2601
- Building: Ian Ross Building
- Room Number: Seminar Room R214
- Click here for Map
Speakers
Ian
Biography:
Ian Martin has 40 years of experience in telecommunications and related sector research, including 10 years with the Australian public service and 30 years in investment research and corporate advisory in Australia and New Zealand. Ian is a leading telecommunications analyst and advisor specialising in equity research, establishing Ian Martin Advisory (IMA) in 2015 to provide independent equity research on the sector to institutional investors and undertake financial advisory specialising in the telecommunications sector. IMA publishes research on the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications sector for investors with New Street Research, a global independent equity research house specialising in the telecommunications sector. As part of this work, IMA maintains financial models of Australian and New Zealand telecommunications companies including Telstra, Optus, TPG, NBN Co, Spark NZ and Chorus. Ian has degrees from Monash and ANU.
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