Satellite Direct-to-Device Revolution : Bridging the Rural Divide or Disrupting Mobile Networks?

#Satellite #direct-to-device #mobile #direct-to-cell

Abstract

In 2022 Apple announced a breakthrough. For the first time a cellphone, without external antenna, would be able to communicate directly with a satellite. Its capabilities were very limited but lifesaving in numerous circumstances. Since then, others have developed “direct to device” (D2D) services including Starlink, Amazon LEO and AST SpaceMobile. Some promise cellular levels of connectivity even including video calls in future releases.

There is now much debate as to where this will lead. Will the service remain a low-bandwidth fallback in areas where there is no cellular connectivity or might it grow to a solution that supplants cellular, at least outdoors? Will users access the satellite service through their cellular subscription, or the cellular service through their satellite subscription? Might Starlink bundle fixed and mobile satellite into a complete package?

Underlying these questions are more fundamental uncertainties such as the ultimate capacity of D2D networks and whether the business case can work for multiple operators. Geopolitics, long standing regulatory issues, and the desire for national sovereignty also confuse the picture.

This presentation will explore these questions. It will set out the issues that determine capacity, coverage and the business case and develop initial predictions and estimates. It will address geopolitics, spectrum, current positioning and build a range of scenarios. It will set out what can currently be determined and where there remain genuine uncertainties.

Satellite D2D offers much – a path to ubiquitous connectivity in short timescales. But the history of large-constellation satellite networks is littered with business failures. This presentation ultimately asks whether this time things will be different.