A System of Systems for Cognitive Decision-Making

#decision-making #computer #computer-science

A System of Systems for Cognitive Decision-Making

Decision-making is a task that an average person does about 300 to 400 times a day.  Most decisions are minor but there are some that are of great importance, that the decision can have great impact. The Butterfly Effect states that a small action in one part of the world can cause a great effect in another part of the world at some later time. [Lorenz]

The Gartner Group estimates that by 2028 33% of enterprise applications will include agentic AI, and that this will enable 15% of daily work decisions to be made autonomously, without human intervention. [Gartner].  This can be fueled by a combination of shortage of capable humans, an increase in the cost of human involvement, and greater AI accuracy and performance.  It should be started on a narrow realm of application, and with knowledge, experience, and success, the realm could be expanded. Human cognitive function is an important part of this paper, except that we try to create it in the machine environment. 

Some example situations are included to help demonstrate the problem. This paper explains some of the types of decision-making and how they are performed. The paper then continues with how this process, modeled after an intelligent human would perform the task. This discussion combines computer science, decision sciences, psychology, and mathematics to describe this project.