Too Good To Be True - Can Too Much Evidence Be Unreliable?
Is it possible for a large sequence of measurements or observations, which support a hypothesis, to
counterintuitively decrease our confidence? Can unanimous support be too good to be true? The
assumption of independence is often made in good faith; however, rarely is considertion given to
whether a systemic failure has occurred. Taking this into account can cause certainty in a hypothesis to
decrease as the evidence for it becomes apparently stronger. Even with very low systemic failure rates,
high confidence is surprisingly difficult to achieve. This apparent paradox will be explained in an
accessible way, and we will draw upon interesting examples.
Date and Time
Location
Hosts
Registration
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- 108, King William Street
- Adelaide, South Australia
- Australia 5000
- Building: Level 11, Engineers Australia
- Contact Event Host
- Co-sponsored by Retired Engineers Group
- Starts 28 July 2025 02:30 PM UTC
- Ends 05 August 2025 02:30 PM UTC
- No Admission Charge
Speakers
Derek of University of Adelaide
Biography:
Prof Derek Abbott has made significant contributions to electrical engineering in a number of
multidisciplinary areas. He has published over 350 journal articles, has over 50
PhD completions. He has held appointments on the editorial boards of
Proceedings of the IEEE, IEEE Photonics Journal, Royal Society OS, and PNAS
Nexus. He served on IEEE Publications Services and Products Board (PSPB) 2018-
2024 and is currently on the board of IEEE Access. He is an Honorary Fellow of
Engineers Australia, Fellow of the Australian Institute of Physics, Fellow of the
Institute of Physics (UK), and Fellow of the IEEE (USA).
Address:University of Adelaide, , Adelaide, South Australia, Australia, 5005